Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The average number of everyday killings each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers may not signal better national security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This data was provided by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that in November the smallest figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of the President's safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts cautioned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.