‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply isn't available," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.